More on economic voting

The New York Times’ Economix blog had a piece today relevant to my previous post on the way that the national economy supposedly drives voting.  The gist of it is that expert estimations of the state of the national economy are often inaccurate and sometimes substantially so.  We are still revising our estimates for what the state of the economy was in 2009, and it turns out that some of our earlier estimates were off by a lot.


How again are lay persons making voting decisions based on national economic conditions when even the experts do not know what those conditions are until years later?